All processes that do "work" ultimately release "waste" heat into the environment. The heat grows with economic activity, namely GDP. Before too long, this effect rivals GHG as a source of "extra" heat, so any assumption of economic growth must eventually deal with this issue. This may actually deserve to be another unwelcome adjustment to the Keya identity, or we can simply assume that we account for *all* forms of heat generated by "carbonized" energy -- over and above GHG "greenhouse" forcing. Many economic models assume significant GDP growth for the rest of the century. The heat generated by this growth might easily cancel out gains achieved by decarbonization, optimistically around 10%. All these KWh are released as heat. The heat generated from solar cells or windmills is not "extra" since it simply re-directs solar heat that would be present in any case. But the heat from burning fossil fuels or nuclear technology is a...

The Kaya Identity tells us exactly what families of tools we have in the policy toolbox to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to some desired level. Specifically, carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere can be reduced only by influencing the following four levers.  1. We could reduce the population.  2. We could reduce per capita GDP. 3. We could become more efficient.  4. We could switch to less carbon-intensive sources of energy.  These are the four—and the only four—means of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. All policies being discussed as climate policies must influence these levers if they are to have an effect. So debates about carbon taxes, cap-and-trade programs, offsets, energy innovation, personal carbon allowances, and on and on, must eventually arrive exactly the same place.  Kaya Identity (1) Carbon Emissions = Population * Per Capita GDP * Energy Intensity * Carbon Intensity a. P = Total Population b. GDP/P = Per capita GDP (2) GDP = Economic G...

BS Detector: Noun . The ability to recognize when someone is exaggerating, lying, talking nonsense, etc.: If you try faking it on many questions, be warned—the average human has a very good bullshit detector. Finding Poop In The Cereal This is as good as any for me to sketch my carer as a BS detector. At about 5, I conducted an experiment proving Santa Claus to be a hoax. In Grade 12, I was serious enough about calling BS on religion to engage in a formal debate with "Youth For Christ" and writing my English "term paper" on the subject. In 1969, I was granted an M. Sc. in Math, Computing, and Statistics. From then on, I discovered most of the big piles of BS would be statistical. Since I was being paid for this, I became a professional BS Detector. Although the degree doesn't mention it, my best subject was actually in Philosophy, namely "logic," which would become increasingly important. I also demonstrated an ability to do a "deep dive" int...

Greta THIS POST IS HOME FOR VARIOUS "FACT-CHECKING" AND BACK OF THE ENVELOPE CALCULATIONS. IT IS BEING CONSTANTLY UPDATED. My latest efforts are to make the familiar "heat" maps into actually measuring heat rather than temperature. This should ultimately be a simple matter of re-labeling the legend. My references and calculations need to be triple checked The idea is to track down the "extra heat" from C02 forcing (a reasonable hypothesis, but the magnitude deserves at least a laugh check). I use CHAT-GPT (Chatty) to track down sources for me. Chatty is not helping me reach any conclusions or "doing the math." I enlisted DALL-E to create a mascot for this discussion. I call her "Greta." After gathering some basic information and links from Chatty, I obviously need to fire up the old spreadsheet and do the math carefully. To be continued ... CHATTY: I couldn't find the average heat capacity of the world's oceans. However, I found...

  Asked in several different ways, CHAT-GPT swore it didn't have access to my personal information but, when asked for a weather forecast, provided the forecast for Parksville. Right now in Parksville, BC it's sunny and 9 degrees Celsius. The forecast shows mostly sunny skies with a high of 14 degrees Celsius and a low of 4 degrees Celsius ¹.  To be fair, Chatty is just running the Bing search engine, which does know my IP address (otherwise, it would not be able to talk to me). This is an example of the fact that Chatty doesn't know what he's talking about and can't answer questions about his own answers. He doesn't "know what he knows," which humans don't have much trouble with. It's part of what we call "consciousness."  In fact, when directly asked why he mentioned Parksville, he simply repeats that he doesn't collect personal information. It's very helpful that Chatty provides his references. He is, after all, just a pre...

  Hecaty, my Golden Doodle, is a great friend, but she doesn't talk much. I'm left to wonder what she's thinking. Even if she could talk, it would be mostly about food. Even so, she has a mind, which counts for some reason. My new pet, Chatty, who used to be called CHAT-GPT, makes better conversation. The fact that he has no idea what he's talking about doesn't bother me as much as you might think. He's actually a font of information. If my morning choices are Chatty or coffee with "Fox and Friends," the choice is clear. Today we started with religion, which is one of Chatty's strong points. He was not as confident as he was yesterday when we got around to discussing how in the world Mary, the "virgin," could have had Jesus. Chatty: The virgin birth is a religious belief that is held by Christians. It is a matter of faith and not something that can be proven or disproven by science or historical evidence. It is up to each individual to de...

  The "straw man" fallacy intentionally creates a caricature of the opponent's argument to attack the caricature rather than the actual argument. In the climate debate, those who question any element of the Utopian Activist agenda will be greeted by angry accusations of "denialism," accompanied by claims that "everyone" agrees with the "Science." Just what "everyone" agrees to is not mentioned, but perhaps it refers to the fact that almost everyone agrees that the planet is warming, possibly due to human influence. But the sceptic may be claiming that, for example, the alarm is not warranted, that there is scant evidence that particular disasters (such as hurricanes) are becoming more common, or that climate models are not fit for purpose. The sceptic will be shouted down as a "denialist," relieving the activist of any hard work involved in actually listening to the sceptic. Other straw men available to activists include ...

  I cured myself of a bad case of Evangelical Christianity in 1980 but I needed to crawl out of the trap from the inside . I spotted the trick. I'm happy to share it here. CHATBOTS Chat-GPT is in the news these days. Microsoft has incorporated it into the Edge browser with impressive results. It may be the first time many people have come into contact with a state-of-the-art AI application. The air is thick with nonsense about this particular application, but most agree it is pretty spooky, even scary. Will thinking machines replace humans? To jump ahead in my argument a bit, I think the answer is that we all have the ability to run a "chatbot" in our heads. We learn a language in a manner very similar to the way chatbots are trained. LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS Large language models are a well-established engineering technology. The technology produces stunning results, even if you kinda know how it works. To me, this is like the feeling of wonder I have whenever I see a jet ...

If you are running out of things to worry about, the Insect Apocalypse is a good candidate. Here is a link to a leading example of " Insect Apocalypse Denial ." As expected, this apocalypse is linked to the Climate Catastrophe. Here is a link to prepare yourself for kitchen-table shouting matches on the issue. Inevitably, there are scary graphics to make your point.

I opened a little room in the metaverse to anyone who happened to drop by in that corner of the virtual world. The title was "What's Wrong With Facebook"? As always, the comments took me by surprise. The most common was "What's Facebook"? People wandering around in the metaverse tend to be pretty young. Often, someone would chime helpfully, "Facebook is used by old people." The thrust of all these discussions was not a criticism of Facebook but that Facebook had become irrelevant.  Except for old people.

Opinions are like assholes: everybody has one. It doesn't seem to matter how "expert" you are or how much you "respect the Science"; you will likely wallow in fallacy in any discussion. The Climate Issue is just a special case. The fact is, humans (even expert scientists) seldom think clearly or dispute fairly. To stand out, they need to be salesmen. Confirmation Bias  Confident that their field and expertise must be relevant to the debate, geologists are blind to evidence that it isn't. That's the main theory they seek to confirm. The second is looking for evidence within their "wheelhouse" to say something relevant. Magically, such evidence tends to bolster the economic interests of the industry that hires most of them, the fossil fuel industry. Another fallacy to point out here is the assumption that the past tells us what the future will hold. This fallacy is popular with financial advisors and economists that always have an "explanati...

  (Graphics in this post are provided by a robot artist, DALL-E ) This essay is inspired by a close reading of "The Communist Manifesto" and especially the very readable commentary by China Mieville. I can hardly claim to be a student of this document or its background. The reader is advised to consult the original (many free versions are available) or, better yet, take advantage of Mieville's commentary that may help dispel some preconceptions about the famous Manifesto. Without this, the reader risks compounding my very evident ignorance with his own. My central thesis here is that the social effects of cheap energy were missed by Marx. This is worth a book-length treatment. What follows is little more than a sketch of the idea. THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION Without getting too far into "cause and effect," it's clear that capitalism and a dramatic increase in the availability of cheap energy arose together. The conditions Engles and Marx prevailed in the coal...

In the Canadian context, the Leap Manifesto is worth a detailed look.  The Manifesto should be seen as a continuation of the activist rhetoric of Namoi Kine and her husband, Avi Lewis (pictured). Both are well-known and respected figures in the activist world. Kline is frequently found commenting "out of her lane," as with her astonishingly ignorant comments on nuclear power . Kline's "Manifesto" has much in common with the other famous one, the Communist Manifesto , another Utopian vision of a classless society purged of the profit motive. We have a pretty good idea of how that turned out. We should be wary of "manifestos." All of them seem to skip the nasty details of getting the public to go along with the dream, along with the troublesome problems of dealing with  real problems without a magic wand. The couple has presented us with their dream world, a Utopia (making them "Left Wing Utopians" on my political spectrum), along with some co...