The Kaya Identity tells us exactly what families of tools we have in the policy toolbox to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to some desired level. Specifically, carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere can be reduced only by influencing the following four levers.  1. We could reduce the population.  2. We could reduce per capita GDP. 3. We could become more efficient.  4. We could switch to less carbon-intensive sources of energy.  These are the four—and the only four—means of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. All policies being discussed as climate policies must influence these levers if they are to have an effect. So debates about carbon taxes, cap-and-trade programs, offsets, energy innovation, personal carbon allowances, and on and on must eventually arrive exactly the same place.  Kaya Identity (1) Carbon Emissions = Population * Per Capita GDP * Energy Intensity * Carbon Intensity a. P = Total Population b. GDP/P = Per capita GDP (2) GDP = Economic Gr...

Science shows us that fears of a climate apocalypse are unfounded. Global warming is real, but it is not the end of the world. It is a manageable problem. Yet, we now live in a world where almost half the population believes climate change will extinguish humanity. This has profoundly altered the political reality. It makes us double down on poor climate policies. It makes us increasingly ignore all other challenges, from pandemics and food shortages to political strife and conflicts, or subsume them under the banner of climate change. Lomborg, Bjorn. False Alarm (p. 13). Basic Books. Kindle Edition. Global temperature and GDP are both rising, and each affects the other. Our efforts to rein in temperatures will cost resources and lead to slower GDP growth. Rising GDP typically means more greenhouse gas emissions, which will speed up rises in temperature. In order to understand what the future holds, we need to get a grasp on exactly what these two variables mean, how they interact, and...