Panic Part 5 - Apocalypse Never
Then he gets down to his case, which is like Lomborg's warning about how our attempts to "fix" climate change may actually harm the people we are trying to help. Much of his writing is based on his experience in the Congo. He makes the totally valid point that extremely poor people in the Congo rely on wood for fuel:
Ninety-eight percent of people in eastern Congo rely on wood and charcoal as their primary energy for cooking. In the Congo as a whole, nine out of ten of its nearly ninety-two million people do, while just one out of five has any access to electricity.44, 45 The entire country relies on just 1,500 megawatts of electricity, which is about as much as a city of one million requires in developed nations.
Shellenberger, Michael. Apocalypse Never (pp. 7-8). Harper. Kindle Edition.
The Congo is a victim of geography, colonialism, and terrible post-colonial governments. Its economy grew from $7.4 billion in 2001 to $38 billion in 2017,52 but the annual per capita income of $561 is one of the lowest in the world,53 leading many to conclude that much of the money that should flow to the people is being stolen.
Shellenberger, Michael. Apocalypse Never (p. 9). Harper. Kindle Edition.
Gapminder shows that the GDR Congo is certainly stuck in "Level 1".
Shellenberger is, like me, distressed by all the blatant panic-mongering. Fair enough.
Shellenberger's claim that people "on the ground" in the Congo have other problems besides climate change is obviously true and not contradicted by the facts. Climate change is not at the top of the list for the majority of people. This does not change the seriousness of the issue.
It seems easy enough to provide the bulk of the human population with reliable energy - either from natural gas or electricity - while still achieving significant C02 reductions. That's because the huge majority of emissions are coming from relatively rich individual people. In the long run, we can replace gas and coal as a generator of electricity, but we will be left with gas as a super-convenient fuel for isolated populations.
But this is not the prescription for "Level 1". These people are in desperate condition, requiring direct international assistance to meet daily needs. Saddling Level 1 populations with the obligation to fight climate change is a cruel dismissal of their actual needs. But sympathy for the poor doesn't make the issue go away. On the larger issue, Shellenberger seems to come back to the "panic" issue. Things are not as bad as Greta Thurnburg fears. But how bad are they?
I'm going to wrap my comments about this book. Everything said in previous essays on this topic sheds light on Shellenberger's point of view. And you will enjoy the "war stories".
Perhaps I will "circle back" and add more commentary. It's a good book, but maybe not a "reference" on the issue. Forgive me if I smile when I read:
Our flood-control, electricity, and road systems will keep working even under the most dire potential levels of warming.
Shellenberger, Michael. Apocalypse Never (p. 15). Harper. Kindle Edition.
I am left with the impression that Shellenberger, like so many "experts" needs to spend some time in the midst of a real climate emergency. BC went through a "triple whammy" of climate strangeness - hardly the "most dire" one can imagine. Our infrastructure did not "keep working".
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