Droughts, Floods, Hurricanes, Tornadoes and Other Weather - What Are the Trends?

By Wayne Brown




Extreme swings in Lake Chad’s water levels are not new. The lake has experienced wet and dry periods for thousands of years, according to paleoclimate research. More recently, variations in depth and extent were noted by French explorer Jean Tilho, who reported in 1910 that parts of the lake had dried up. But what is new is the way researchers are studying changes in the lake.
the-ups-and-downs-of-lake-cha


Lake Chad plays a starring role in apocalyptic scenarios. It is very vulnerable to drought and always has been. The recent drought itself is a fact. But is there a trend? The lack of such trends is features prominently in "denial" literature such as "Inconvenient Facts."


But are there trends? Gore is very clear about that, and the trends are all nasty. Both floods and droughts are attributed to climate change.



I have yet to encounter a rebuttal of the "no trends" argument. Gore himself emphasizes the huge cost of hurricanes by dwelling on Katrina, which was very bad news for New Orleans. It's plain that this particular disaster was caused by the fact that the city is below sea level and poorly prepared for a major hurricane. The lesson here is that the damage caused by all kinds of weather events is increasing due to humans putting more and more assets in the path of disaster.


But are the hurricanes themselves becoming more frequent? Since Gore's alarm call, this issue has been closely watched. In fact, hurricanes are not becoming more (or less) frequent. Alarmists now retreat to the claim that maybe they are stronger than before. So far, I don't see proof or even cherry-picked "evidence." Note that Gore's claims refer to trends already occurring at the time.

I was very impressed by the work of John Christy: "Is it Getting Hotter in Fresno?" It's hard to imagine a more detailed, patient analysis of the question in just one region. Christy is a member of the IPCC effort in good standing, but his opinions are never to be found in "executive summaries." By the way, the answer is no. It's not getting hotter in Fresno. But I do come away wondering if the IPCC temperature data has the same quality as Christy's.

Christy has interesting things to say about the IPCC models, which I will deal with in another post.

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