Oceans Rising

By Wayne Brown

Oceans rising feature prominently in the climate crisis rhetoric, always coupled with a demand for unspecified and un-costed action. Even the most radical action (such as the USA vanishing entirely) will have no noticeable effect on climate for centuries, according to IPCC models.

If left unchecked, research predicts that this continued warming and ice melt could raise global sea levels by 3.3 meters.

About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date. Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 - 5 feet (0.5 - 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 - 7 feet (1.1 - 2.1 meters) by the end of this century. (NOAA)

This article is typical of consensus based on actual measurements that put sea level rise at 3.6 mm per year - 6 inches since 1902. Typically, this article attributes the cause of recent acceleration to human-caused warming. If this rate is accepted as fact, it will obviously take more than 2,000 years for the sea to rise 1 meter. Most of the panic scenarios assume 1 meter or more. To push disaster ahead, many scenarios assume an accelerating rate of sea level rise. But even if we accept this, we don't get threatening sea level rise in this century or the next. What we do need to worry about is the 20-foot sea level rise in hurricanes and earthquakes that actually happen.

An example of this is the scenario painted by the otherwise sensible "Physics of Climate Change" which closes with a very detailed scenario of sea level rise in the Mekong Delta.


This puts the Mekong Delta underwater, based on a rise of .5 meters by the end of the century based on the assumption that the sea will rise .5 meters by the end of the century. It seems to me that this estimate is (to be charitable) an outlier. However, it is true that such a scenario would be a catastrophe if it were to happen in the foreseeable future.

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