A Lesson in Dragon Theory from China

(Update - March 9, 2015)

Under the Dome - Investigating China's Smog

This is a must-see for anyone interested in how the world works. On the surface, it's a "call to arms" to ordinary Chinese people to rise up against the Chinese corporate giants (who have more "fat than muscle"). It is packed with examples of how the dragon-infested world of China is being strangled by government (i.e. publicly-funded) industries that don't even make a real profit while killing ordinary Chinese citizens by the tens of thousands every year.

Below the surface, it can be seen as a production of an invisible dragon. The subtle messages are:

• No mention at all of global warming, which will be dramatically increased by the policies recommended (mainly switch to natural gas)
• Recommendation that the big government controlled industrial giants be broken up (who will wind up owning them? We have seen the answer in the breakup of USSR)
• Ultimately a very strong faith in the government. Let's fix this problem by supporting our government to attack all this corruption. Somehow, the government that created all these problems in the first place must now be trusted to fix them -- but what we need is for every citizen to actively support the government.

That said, I believe that this documentary is historic -- equal in importance to Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth or Rachael Carson's Silent Spring. While one may cynically see it as a piece of Chinese government propaganda (which it certainly is), it will also get billions of people thinking about the real problems they face and who is responsible. Once you whip up a feeling in the mind of a few billion citizens that something can be done about it, the genie is out of the bottle.

That makes this documentary such an important lesson in Dragon Theory.

(March 9, 2015)

On March 7, the Chinese Government attempted to put the genie back in the bottle by banning Under the Dome, along with all discussion of it.  This makes "Dome" a fascinating case study and a lesson for Western observers in Chinese politics. This article from the Wall Street Journal gives a readable summary of the current situation in China.  Xi Jinping, the current General Secretary, has established a cult of personality around himself, mostly by presenting himself as a champion of the common man (a Chinese Putin?) and being seen to fight "corruption". However, targets for corruption prosecutions just happen to be rivals of Xi, allowing him to crush opposition within the party while increasing his own popularity.

So the question is, how did the "Dome" get made in the first place and how did it get such wide spread attention, only to be shut down within days? I have an image in my mind of a fight to the death between a pair of alligators (dragons?), which takes place mostly under muddy water. From time to time, see the struggle briefly break the surface, only to vanish in froth and bubbles seconds later.

In such a situation, it's easy to come up with a dozen theories about what is "really" going on. Let me advance one that is fun but surely wrong. Suppose Xi is really "in charge". There is strong evidence that China is well aware of the coming environmental catastrophe and it's doing more about it than any nation on Earth. However, as "Dome" points out, "modernization" of China is a big part of the problem and it's making huge profits for very influential people in the "system". So, major changes are called for, but these will be opposed by dozens of power blocks, many identified in the "Dome". Above all, the "rule of law" must be established to make any real change. So, the "Dome" is "put out there" to get public sympathy for the government's effort to enforce its own environmental laws and (coincidentally) the rule of law in general and (of course) the prosecution of "corruption" on the part of those who oppose tightening of Xi's power. The documentary is pulled, but the "cat is out of the bag" -- the shot has been fired and cannot be taken back. Paradoxically, millions of Chinese who watched the documentary are left with the impression that somehow the corrupt and evil forces identified in the Dome have "pushed back" against the efforts of the "good guys" (Xi) to fix the problem. The resulting outrage (if any) is directed at the corrupt Chinese establishment, not at the centres of power around Xi and certainly not at the "system". In the "Dome", the "system" is seen as the solution, not the problem.

Apparently, the early pre-release version of the "Dome" did point out some features of the "system" that contributed to the problem. These were edited out before the documentary was released. To Western observers, the "Dome" is an astonishingly frank portrayal of the terrible consequences of the Chinese "miracle". However, there is still the "elephant in the room" -- so much that was off-limits. In the end, the message of the film is raise hell with local government - "support Xi".

I'll be following the drama of the Dome and editing this post as things unfold.

(March 10)

Interesting commentary here documents official support for the documentary. The piece makes explicit the connection between "anti corruption" and "the Dome".

Li adds that the timing of the documentary is particularly interesting. The Communist Party-led congress that starts this week, the appointment of Chen Jining, and the Chinese leadership's widening anti-corruption campaign.

Chen has said that watching the film reminded him of the global concern for the environment  that Rachel Carson’s 1962 book 'Silent Spring' created, and that Chai’s documentary was of particular significance for raising public interest in the environment and the health problems pollution can cause.

He added said that his ministry and the media are on the same side, and that 'Under the Dome' demonstrates an interaction between the government, society and the media. 

The piece dates to before the documentary was suppressed and would now be blocked within China. Chen's official ascent to the power is documented here. I think it's important to separate two issues

• (a) The "powers that be" recognize an environmental catastrophe when it's staring them in the face and want to somehow "fix things" but 
• (b) the release of "the Dome" does not signal relaxation of human rights in general or freedom of speech in particular. 

This issue, like every other issue, will used as a weapon in Xi's increasingly desperate campaign to centralize power in his own hands. The essential message in "the Dome" -- possibly missed by the censors -- is to get people to take matters into their own hands and to hold the government accountable. Xi is possibly hoping that only his political "enemies" will be held accountable. Oops.