What Cassandra Says About Covid and the Delta Variant

 

 I have suffered from the "Cassandra Complex". It turns out that I am very good at seeing catastrophe coming. At least three times I have been fired from huge projects for predicting disaster. Once disaster actually struck, for some reason, nobody gets back to pat me on the back.

When COVID struck, back in early 2020, my view of the future was very dark. I could see hundreds of millions of deaths, based on what we knew at that point. Back then, nobody expected a vaccine any time soon. For a time, the mRNA vaccines seemed to change the math. At first, the news was dominated by epi curves. We all talked about 'flattening the curve", meaning driving down the exponential explosion of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Once the vaccine started to roll out, the focus became on getting everyone vaccinated.

Although you may not have noticed, that phase ended today. The facts now seem to be:

The delta variant is now dominating new cases;

• Existing vaccines do not protect against the delta variant but they dramatically reduce the chance of serious infection;
• You can be "fully vaccinated" and experience mild symptoms (or no symptoms), therefore going around spreading the virus
• Delta is now spreading like wildfire among the unvaccinated and in countries that never did get a chance to get vaccinated.

The fact that people are still washing their hands long after this has been proven to be irrelevant (the virus doesn't actually spread that way) gives us a clue that reaction to the new situation will be sluggish and mostly irrelevant.  Forget masks, social distancing, lockdowns, border closings. We're all going to get it and probably before the end of 2021

A fact-based response would seem to be:

• Assume everyone will get the virus -- sooner rather than later;
• Abandon policies that were designed to fight the "classic" virus that we no longer face, such as masks and social distancing;
• Expect outbreaks among vulnerable people who refuse to get vaccinated but don't be alarmed. These fools are dangerous to themselves but pose no bigger problem to the rest of us than anyone else (since everyone is assumed to carry the virus).
• Protect the vulnerable.
• Protect the health care system, including health care workers who are currently dying by the tens of thousands due to lack of vaccine - that's being pointlessly being given to teenagers.
• Lean on the government to use the COVAX program to distribute vaccines where they are actually needed.
• Lean on the government to "march in" on vaccine patents we still need vast amounts of vaccine manufacturing capability, especially since the situation can and will change in the next few months.
• Focus on treatment rather than prevention.

This means that we can calmly accept the happy talk about the pandemic being "over". Go ahead. Expect to get the virus. Expect to spread it. All you can do is put it off for a few days or weeks.

Let's take a closer look at that picture:

• Limited supplies of the vaccine should be distributed worldwide to the vulnerable and health care workers.
• Efforts to vaccinate younger people should be abandoned until all vulnerable people are vaccinated  All these people will get the virus, vaccinated or not. Some will have no symptoms. Some will get the nasty flu. Some will die.

In the long run, nature will vaccinate the whole world - willing or not. COVID will become "endemic". This means it will be running around in the population, merrily mutating forever. Like the old-fashioned flu, it will kill thousands every year. That's the "end state".

Meantime, I predict worldwide deaths may reach 100 million. For all intents and purposes, the worldwide population is defenseless against delta.

The Spanish Flu killed about 50 million - about 1 in 10 infected.  At the time, the world population was about 2 billion. COVID is not nearly as dangerous. You can fiddle with your own numbers, but expect deaths to grow exponentially for the rest of this year until the virus starts running out of vulnerable victims. This is NOT "herd immunity". This is a catastrophe. Get vaccinated. Don't die.

For the record, as of today, the official death toll is about 4 million. This can be expected to double every few weeks in the US, which has vaccinated most of its vulnerable population. the doubling rate will be faster in the world in general. Whatever the period is (in a low number of weeks), it will go 4, 8 16, 32, 64, 128 million in weeks. This will completely overwhelm all the happy talk we have been hearing and the general sense that we can relax - it's over.

Individuals infected will grow at a similar rate, meaning almost everyone will get the virus long before the end of 2021.