Lex Fridman's stunning conversation with Lanier, who thinks much more deeply and widely than the average genius. How technology, especially Social Media, changes who we are - bit by bit.

DRAFT 02/28/2023 - For comment only I have suffered from the " Cassandra Complex ." It turns out that I am very good at seeing catastrophes coming. At least three times, I have been fired from huge projects for predicting disaster. Once disaster actually struck, for some reason, nobody got back to pat me on the back. That's the curse. Over the years, I have created a few computer models. For a long time, people have looked at complex systems and reached for their computers. Surely it's just a matter of crunching the numbers. It turns out that, even in the simplest of systems, there is always a huge gap between what the computer can "know" and what happens in the real world. In my experience, it is a rare model that tells you something you didn't already know. Surprising results are usually just wrong. " The Delinquent Teenager " by investigative reporter Donna Lafromabousie will dispel any illusions you may have about the IPCC having anything t

This post has been superseded by this one , which is a quick way to summarize the state of affairs for any audience, no matter what they think of the issue. It comes down to a simple and familiar debate. What are the problems we face? How much money do we have? How shall we spend it?  FOR HISTORICAL REASONS, THE ORIGINAL "ELEVATOR PITCH" IS INCLUDED BELOW. "That inch of Ocean rise in a decade you can deal with. It's the 20 feet that comes with the next hurricane ." Dr. John Crhisty - Director of the Earth System Science Center and as Alabama’s State Climatologist, IPCC expert reviewer [ [Be prepared to provide more about Christy if asked . Links in notes. Stick with the story format.] Dr. Christy is not alone in pointing out [link above] that the IPCC models consistently "predict" much higher temperatures than those observed. Note: As a member of the IPCC team, Christy has access to all the models and the raw data. He has generated much of the raw dat

LARGE CHUNK OF THIS RECORD VANISHED -  Let me use this place to insert a few key ideas and who agrees/disagrees all observers agree that there is warming at least ....  ocean rising ... radiative forcing due to C02 is logarithmic. Diagrams miss this. Due to my skeptical nature and long experience in big computer projects, I have honed what I call my "Cassandra complex", which is the ability to see catastrophic failure far in advance. This ability has gotten me fired more than once. Oddly nobody has ever thanked me for warning them when the projects actually fail, which they inevitably do: so far, I have never been wrong. The attempt to model climate (actually dozens of attempts) have been motivated by the panic started by Gore's "Inconvenient Truth". Looking back, virtually nothing in this award-winning "documentary" passes the smell test, yet thousands of computer nerds set to work to prove what Gore maintained: that C02 emissions were out of control

The best "quick and dirty" introduction I've found to Dr. Christy is here . I have ordered his book , but, at the time of writing, I have not read it. I urge my readers to take the time to watch the video. You can be sure I will add a little of value here. Dr. Christy was brought to my attention by my wife's cousin, Graeme Phipps. We have had a long discussion on this topic. In my own case, the problem was Christy's "bottom line" was hidden in a barrel of bad apples such as Gregory Wrightstone (enough said). Many "climate skeptics" are right for the wrong reasons or paid to peddle a preconceived view and are therefore not convincing. It is striking that Dr. Christy's presentation, which must get high marks for clarity, conciseness, and relevance, was attended sparsely attended in "real life." Christy is a voice howling in the wilderness. "Polarization" is at work here. On both the "left" and the "right,&q