Climate Elevator Pitch (Work in Progress)

By Wayne Brown


This post has been superseded by this one, which is a quick way to summarize the state of affairs for any audience, no matter what they think of the issue. It comes down to a simple and familiar debate. What are the problems we face? How much money do we have? How shall we spend it? 

FOR HISTORICAL REASONS, THE ORIGINAL "ELEVATOR PITCH" IS INCLUDED BELOW.

"That inch of Ocean rise in a decade you can deal with. It's the 20 feet that comes with the next hurricane."

Dr. John Crhisty - Director of the Earth System Science Center and as Alabama’s State Climatologist, IPCC expert reviewer[

[Be prepared to provide more about Christy if asked. Links in notes. Stick with the story format.]


Dr. Christy is not alone in pointing out [link above] that the IPCC models consistently "predict" much higher temperatures than those observed.


Note: As a member of the IPCC team, Christy has access to all the models and the raw data. He has generated much of the raw data himself. He is not alone in pointing out this issue. Plainly put, the IPCC models have never worked and don't work now. They don't provide any kind of information useful for policymaking, nor do they provide insight into the effect of C02 on climate. They all assume C02 is driving climate change, but that assumption is not born out by observation.

The graph above shows an observed real increase in temperature of less than .4 degrees since 1980. There is no evidence that this modest rate of increase is accelerating. Acceleration is in the model but not the real world.

"Garbage In, Gospel Out"

[It may be useful to point out that current climate models can't come close to simulating seasonal variations of temperature or cloud structure. Water, not C02, is the main driver of climate.]

Dr. Christy's remark highlights the other job of the IPCC: preparing for climate disasters, whatever the cause may be. It's a focus on what we know rather than our worst fears of what might happen in the future. Whatever you think of the IPCC models, it makes sense to prepare for events that Nature throws at us on a regular basis.

[On the concept of "Carbon Neutral" policy]



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